The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reaffirmed expectations for a record-setting harvest in corn and soybean production, signaling tough times ahead for farmers as oversupply continues to depress global market prices. According to the USDA’s latest estimates, corn production is expected to hit 15.2 billion bushels, up by 17 million from the previous month, while soybean yields are forecast at 4.6 billion bushels, slightly lower due to yield reductions.
If realized, these projections will represent the largest soybean crop and the second-largest corn crop in U.S. history, USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer confirmed. However, the massive yields have driven down prices, contributing to a sharp decline in farm income and increased financial challenges for producers.
Despite stable average season prices at $4.10 per bushel for corn and $10.80 per bushel for soybeans, the influx of supply has put downward pressure on the market, exacerbating an already difficult financial outlook for farmers. The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer reported a significant drop in farmer sentiment, hitting its lowest point since 2016.
Farmers’ concerns are growing, with 33% citing falling prices as their biggest worry. Only 26% remain optimistic about a rise in exports over the next five years, marking the most pessimistic outlook since the survey question was introduced in 2019.
“Farmers are becoming increasingly anxious about income prospects for 2024 and 2025,” said James Mintert, principal investigator of the Ag Barometer and director of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.
The convergence of lower prices, higher input costs, and uncertain trade conditions has left many producers bracing for more financial hardship despite record yields.
